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  3. Illegal online gambling: Challenges of estimating the size of the illegal gambling market

Report

Illegal online gambling: Challenges of estimating the size of the illegal gambling market

The final chapter of the Gambling Commission's research into the illegal online market, focusing on challenges estimating the size of the market.

Published
6 November 2025

Last updated
6 November 2025 - Changes

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  1. Contents
  2. Conclusions and next steps

Conclusions and next steps

Key point summary

The key points for this section are

  • although we are not yet able to make an estimate of the scale of the illegal gambling market, this paper sets out the wide range of considerations needed to make further progress
  • options to improve our data sources and assumptions are outlined and delivering these will make up our planned programme of work
  • progress will require collaboration with stakeholders, including academia, operators and other regulators.

Further development of the 2 methodologies explored in this report have the potential to allow us to make useful estimates of the size of the illegal gambling market. Although more work is needed to improve the assumptions underpinning these estimates, options have been identified that open-up a pathway to allow a robust estimate. Annex A sets out these options and their feasibility in greater detail.

Developing this estimate is a worthwhile exercise. We recognise that several third parties have published estimates. Whilst we welcome the focus on this issue, and recognise the concern stakeholders have about illegal gambling, we urge caution over use of estimates where the methodologies are not clear and levels of uncertainty are not set out.

Whilst we work to further improve our estimates, we will continue to:

  • collect data on illegal sites to prioritise our operational work to disrupt illegal websites
  • continue monitoring trends which help us to understand if market is growing, reducing, remaining stable, or experiencing seasonal fluctuations
  • use data to estimate the impact of disruption of illegal websites
  • encourage others with data to come forward and help refine and improve assumptions
  • further explore other areas of the illegal gambling market – such as gambling within social media Apps and land-based gambling.
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Annexes - Challenges of estimating the size of the illegal gambling market
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