Report
Exploring online, illegal, individual-led lotteries and raffles
Exploring online, illegal, individual-led lotteries and raffles
Conclusions
Broadly, the research suggests that participation in online individual-led lotteries and raffles promoted through social media remains relatively low at a population level, but that these activities can feel familiar, credible and low risk to those who encounter them.
Across the digital, quantitative and qualitative phases, the findings point to an ecosystem in which trust is often built socially rather than formally, and where engaging content and low-cost entry can reduce scrutiny of what may, in some cases, be illegal activity.
This project sits within the Gambling Commission’s wider Evidence Roadmaps, particularly the themes of Illegal gambling and crime, and Early gambling experiences and gateway products. It strengthens the Commission’s evidence base on how illegal online activity emerges and operates on social media, how individuals may first encounter these activities and potential risks this may pose to the consumer. The insights are intended to support the Commission and the wider research community in addressing priority evidence gaps identified in the Roadmaps.
How do these online individual-led lotteries and raffles become appealing and credible?
The evidence suggests that these activities are often encountered passively rather than actively sought out, with participants coming across them while scrolling on social media, through reposts, live content, community groups or recommendations from friends. Prize teasers, countdowns, winner announcements and live draws help make the activity feel visible, active and established.
Participants appear more likely to rely on social proof and familiarity than on formal checks relating to licensing or regulation. Low ticket prices and the social presentation of the activity also make participation easy to justify.
What does this mean for consumer risk and protection?
The research suggests that the point of greatest risk often sits beyond the original social media post. While platforms such as TikTok and Facebook help build visibility and trust, payment and entry often take place elsewhere, through external websites, payment links or peer-to-peer payment methods. These journeys may still feel routine to players while offering weaker protections than they realise.
Awareness of legality also appears to be low among both players and, in some cases, hosts. Participants were generally more concerned with whether they might be scammed than with whether an activity was licensed or lawful. Even where concerns were raised, low ticket prices and the perception that losses were minor often meant that the activity was seen as too low stakes to report.
What have we learnt?
Our research indicates that consumer participation is dictated less by an activity's formal legal status and more by its perceived legitimacy. Consumers are primarily concerned with avoiding scams, and they use tangible cues (such as a professional appearance, ease of use, or recommendations from others) to assess this risk.
At the same time, hosts can actively shape these cues, for example through selective use of tags and language (such as describing raffles as “competitions” or “giveaways”), and in other ways that make activity appear more legitimate than it may be in practice. Taken together, these social and familiarity cues can build a sense of trust that effectively replaces formal safeguards and ultimately determines participation.
The mixed-methods design has been important in building this picture. The digital intelligence phase mapped how this activity appears and circulates online. The quantitative phase provided context on exposure and participation. The qualitative phase added depth on how consumers experience these journeys in practice, including how trust is formed, how payment takes place and why legality is not front of mind.
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Last updated: 13 August 2026
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