Prediction markets - here’s what you need to know
Director of Strategy Brad Enright sets out the Gambling Commission’s view on prediction markets and their availability in Great Britain.
Posted 4 February 2026 by Brad Enright
The emergence of ‘Prediction Markets’ is a notable development in the United States. As a result, we have fielded enquiries about how they impact gambling regulation in Great Britain.
What is a prediction market?
A 'prediction market' is a relatively new term attached to emerging business models in the United States. A prediction market is a platform which enables participants to trade event-based contracts on markets including financial, sports, and political events.
Gambling regulation in Great Britain
Commercial products meeting the definition of gambling under UK legislation must be licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission. Spread betting is an exception which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Subject to the specific business model a 'prediction market' operator wished to offer in Great Britain, it would appear current products would fall within the definition of a ‘Betting Intermediary’ under UK legislation. Whilst the presentation of prediction markets may differ, their core aspects are akin to what in the UK would be described as a 'Betting Exchange.' The betting intermediary gambling licence exists to cover such business models.
Whilst prediction markets are a relatively new development in the United States, betting exchanges have existed in the UK since 2000.
Where activities fall within our regulatory remit, licensed operators are subject to a range of requirements on how they provide their products and services. These include requirements relating to consumer protection, fairness, the integrity of betting markets, and the prevention of crime. We actively scrutinise compliance with these requirements and take enforcement action where standards are not met.
Firms offering financial services products as opposed to gambling facilities, are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Availability of prediction markets in Great Britain
It is not for us to comment on ongoing legal debates on the status of prediction markets in the United States or elsewhere. If a prediction market operator was to launch here in Great Britain, we do not believe they would be able to classify themselves as non-gambling products.
Current prediction market operators who are not licensed in Great Britain should take steps to ensure they are not targeting or transacting with consumers in Great Britain. There are criminal offences associated with operating without an appropriate licence here.
It is unlikely the commercial drivers for prediction markets are the same here as in the United States. There are notable differences between the gambling market in Great Britain and the United States. Sports betting is established and available across the whole of Great Britain under a single overarching regulatory framework. Legal sports betting in the United States is a more recent development and to date has been subject to State-by-State approaches.
The gambling industry is increasingly global in nature. Given that, we will continue to monitor developments to ensure we remain best placed to help make gambling in Great Britain fairer, safer and crime free.